The Outlook for 2006

Employment
In 2005, about 2 million new jobs were created, and unemployment hovered around 5%. Because the outlook for the economy continues to be strong, expect new job creation, and low unemployment to continue through 2006. As profits have been strong for American business in the past year, highly skilled employees have seen companies offering good money to attract and retain talent. Expect this to continue as well. At the same time, technology has created an environment which is ripe with opportunity for those who have the entrepreneurial spirit.

Easy Come, Easier Go?
While consumer spending bolsters the economy, it doesn’t help personal savings… As a nation, we are currently spending more than we earn. In 2006, expect that the continued rise in the cost of oil will further decrease the rate at which we save, as consumers continue their driving habits in spite of the increased expense. Remember that even if the potential for gas prices stabilizing in the high two dollar range sounds expensive, we are still paying quite a bit less than in most other countries.

Inflation
While inflation has been pretty much non-existent the last few years, it reappeared in 2005. Inflation pulled money out of the bond market in the latter half of the year, causing interest rates to rise moderately. The measured series of Fed rate hikes kept inflation in check, and expect more of the same in 2006.

Alan Greenspan Exits Stage Left
After 18 ½ years, Alan Greenspan’s last meeting as the Fed Chair will be January 31. The market is expecting one last ¼ point rise to the fed funds rate at this meeting, and when the new Chair Ben Bernanke takes over at the March meeting, he will likely show that he means business with another ¼ point hike. While these rate hikes do not impact fixed rate mortgages much, they do have a direct impact on ARM’s and Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOC’s). I expect we will see consumers driven toward fixed rate second mortgages, decreasing the prevalence of HELOC’s.

What Housing Bubble?
2006 is the fifth year that the media has been talking about a housing bubble. While some areas may see prices cool, employment is strong and mortgage rates are still low. Appreciation may slow, but a widespread bubble is not in the cards, particularly here in the midwest where appreciation has been rapid, but not outrageous. Remember that a good realtor can provide you with lots of information on the current housing market in your area.

The Bottom Line: Mortgage Rates
Rates will rise in 2006, but not by much. Foreign demand for our bonds continues to be strong, and as our population ages, their assets will flow from stocks into bonds in order to preserve wealth. This continued flow of money into the bond market will prevent mortgage rates from going up too quickly. Expect 30 year fixed rates to spend most of the year in the mid six percent range.