In The Last Week of 2005...

The big financial event last week was the appearance of an “Inverted Yield Curve”, when the shorter term 2-Year Treasury Note Yield moved higher than the longer term 10-Year Treasury Note Yield. Why care? Only because historically, this has tended to be a recessionary signal, implying that investors do not trust the long term strength of the economy…so while it had the markets a bit rattled initially, a closer inspection shows little cause for concern.
Bottom line, things are different this time because the Fed moves have pushed the 2-Year Note Yield higher, while contained inflation and foreign demand for longer term bonds have helped reduce the 10-year Note Yield. The economy is and will continue to be strong and a recession does not appear to be in the cards for 2006.