The Economy In Brief: Strong Bond Market is Good for Mortgage Rates

Bonds have enjoyed a nice recovery over the past two days and are modestly higher so far today. Friendly commentary from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has been the primary driver of the recent rally. Mr. Bernanke sparked the rally on Wednesday when he told Congress the economy seems to be moderating and inflation remains contained, and continued with similar comments in yesterday's testimony.
Further backing up Bernanke was yesterday afternoon’s weak Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, supplying further evidence the economy is indeed slowing down. In fact, as a result of the weakness shown in the latest economic data...combined with Big Ben's comments over the past few days...the Fed Funds Futures are now predicting only a 33% chance for another 25bp rate hike at the August 8 Fed meeting – down from about a 90% chance just a couple of days ago.
Bonds are also getting a boost on safe-haven buying due to the escalating fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. In recent months, traders haven't purchased Bonds on a flight to quality, but the continuing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is bringing concerns that countries like Iran and Syria may get involved, which would further escalate the conflict and possibly interrupt oil supply. For the time being, oil prices are off their recent highs, which has helped to soften inflationary pressure and support Bonds at current levels.