Action in the Market

The bond market is not doing well today due to events of the last few days. From today's MMG:

A few big headlines are bringing the action back in a hurry after the long holiday weekend. First, North Korea test fired six missiles over the Independence Day Holiday, one of which was long-range and capable of reaching Hawaii or Alaska. Japan and other surrounding countries, as well as the US, are protesting the actions of North Korea, and are threatening economic sanctions against the rogue nation. Normally this type of geopolitical news would create a “flight to quality” and help Bond prices improve, as they are viewed as a safe haven, but another headline has forced Bond prices lower this morning.
A payroll survey released by the world’s largest paycheck processor, Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP), showed an increase of 368,000 new jobs, the largest monthly increase in employment since the ADP Index was created five years ago. While their numbers are not always accurate, this sure provides some evidence that Friday’s Jobs Report may come in much hotter than expected. The current expectation has been for about 160,000 new jobs created during June, and remember that last month’s Job Report showed a fairly wimpy number of 75,000 new job creations during May. We had expected a stronger number last month, so seeing a hot number this month – along with a potential upward revision of last month’s number – wouldn’t come as a surprise, especially given the ADP findings this morning.